Fire SuitedTier 1
at DTR Regionals
decks
5
(5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
36
19-13-4
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.6%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
49.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1270
· median 1287
· range 1099–1449
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1170
Q3 1394
1685
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.7% | -17.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.9% | -5.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 57.7% | +4.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Slimes | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 34.7% | -9.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.3% | +18.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.1% | -19.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.2% | +6.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.4% | +9.0 |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Wind Cats | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Suited decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
